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Calibration-honest · public audit

Postmortems.

Every prediction gets a resolve_by date. Every loss gets a postmortem. Publishing FAIL is the moat.

SPCX IPO 6/12 — SKIP

Walkforward gate verdict FAIL. The rule is the rule.

$0-648 upside skipped

Orallexa walkforward — FAIL

Mean OOS Sharpe -3.08. In-sample fit ≠ production edge.

$0 lost ($300+ NOT entered)

BKSY 6/16 single-name — CANCELED

5/5 personas of one model ≠ 5 independent voters. Shipped λ=0.4 shrinkage.

$300 diversified across 3 names

Markets stack 14-day paper P&L — FAIL

Brier calibration was right. Sharpe direction was wrong. They are not the same.

$0 real / $1015 paper

Why publish this

Roy Lee's Cluely ARR retraction in March 2026 went more viral than the original lie. Wispr Flow's pivot postmortem hit a 5× free→paid conversion at launch. Honest negative results from a serious operator are the cheapest distribution asset of 2026 H1.

The full audit lives at github.com/alex-jb/alex-brain/postmortems (private repo — public mirror coming).

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