RDW
BUYPrice
$18.45
Conf
55.8%
RSI
58.7
Setup: —Δ +0.46
LOADING...
▸ PREDICTIONS · BRIER-AUDITED
Sports picks come from a 5-persona Claude ensemble + historical priors. SpaceX picks come from the same daily brief I publish at github.com/alex-jb/spacex-ipo-tracker. Polymarket picks are flagged only when the ensemble disagrees with the market by 5+ percentage points. Everything is Brier-scored against the closing line.If I'm worse than coin flip, the table will say so.
Contrarian regime
2026-10-10MED degrade. 2 of 4 macro flags active + 5 contrarian signals leaning bearish. Cap any new long position size at 70% of normal sizing for next 7 trading days.
Sizing multiplier 0.70× · 5 active macro signals
| Category | N | Ours | Market | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL FORECASTS | 896 | 0.119 | 0.228 | +0.109 | Beating the market |
| MLB | 584 | 0.134 | 0.241 | +0.107 | Beating the market |
| NBA | 13 | 0.328 | 0.334 | +0.006 | Worse than coin flip |
| NHL | 14 | 0.260 | 0.227 | -0.033 | Worse than coin flip |
| FIFA.WORLD | 86 | 0.133 | 0.200 | +0.066 | Beating the market |
| USA.1 | 146 | 0.058 | 0.212 | +0.154 | Beating the market |
| WNBA | 53 | 0.000 | 0.139 | +0.139 | Beating the market |
Lower Brier is better. Coin-flip baseline for binary forecasts = 0.250. Edge = Brier(market) − Brier(ours) · positive = we beat the line.
next game · daily 12:00 ET
NBA FINALS
as of 2026-06-06No Finals game today. Next pick drops 12:00 ET on game day.
STANLEY CUP FINAL
as of 2026-06-06No Finals game today. Next pick drops 12:00 ET on game day.
0 fixtures flagged
No World Cup matches in the next 24h. Picks return when group stage resumes.
Price
$18.45
Conf
55.8%
RSI
58.7
Price
$93.60
Conf
42.6%
RSI
54.4
Price
$110.08
Conf
50.8%
RSI
42.9
Price
$29.36
Conf
50.8%
RSI
44.4
Price
$34.76
Conf
50.8%
RSI
44.9
Price
$32.22
Conf
59.0%
RSI
35.9
Price
$523.76
Conf
47.6%
RSI
55.3
Price
$507.90
Conf
50.8%
RSI
51.6
flag = Δ ≥ 5pp
Our YES
0.0%
Market
4.0%
Edge
-4.0pp
api:BadRequestError("Error code: 400 - {'type': 'error', 'error': {'type': 'invalid_request_error', 'message': 'Your cre
Our YES
NaN%
Market
1.2%
Edge
NaNpp
Our YES
NaN%
Market
0.0%
Edge
NaNpp
Our YES
0.0%
Market
0.0%
Edge
0.0pp
api:BadRequestError("Error code: 400 - {'type': 'error', 'error': {'type': 'invalid_request_error', 'message': 'Your cre
Our YES
0.0%
Market
0.7%
Edge
-0.7pp
api:BadRequestError("Error code: 400 - {'type': 'error', 'error': {'type': 'invalid_request_error', 'message': 'Your cre