NBATue 11:00 PM ET
mediumIND@OKC
Our pick
OKC 66.0%
Vegas
70.6%
Edge
-4.6pp
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▸ PREDICTIONS · BRIER-AUDITED
Sports picks come from a 5-persona Claude ensemble + historical priors. SpaceX picks come from the same daily brief I publish at github.com/alex-jb/spacex-ipo-tracker. Polymarket picks are flagged only when the ensemble disagrees with the market by 5+ percentage points. Everything is Brier-scored against the closing line.If I'm worse than coin flip, the table will say so.
Contrarian regime
2026-06-17MED degrade. 2 of 4 macro flags active + 5 contrarian signals leaning bearish. Cap any new long position size at 70% of normal sizing for next 7 trading days.
Sizing multiplier 0.70× · 5 active macro signals
| Category | N | Ours | Market | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL FORECASTS | 87 | 0.221 | 0.234 | +0.013 | Beating the market |
| MLB | 52 | 0.229 | 0.241 | +0.012 | Beating the market |
| NBA | 18 | 0.198 | 0.221 | +0.023 | Beating the market |
| NHL | 12 | 0.234 | 0.238 | +0.004 | Beating the market |
| POLYMARKET | 5 | 0.196 | 0.214 | +0.018 | Beating the market |
Lower Brier is better. Coin-flip baseline for binary forecasts = 0.250. Edge = Brier(market) − Brier(ours) · positive = we beat the line.
next game · daily 12:00 ET
NBA FINALS
as of 2026-06-17Today's game
Our pick
OKC 66.0%
Vegas
70.6%
Edge
-4.6pp
STANLEY CUP FINAL
as of 2026-06-17Today's game
Our pick
VGK 57.0%
Vegas
50.4%
Edge
+6.6pp
1 fixture flagged
Argentina vs Brazil
Our pick
BRA 54.0%
Vegas
40.8%
Edge
+5.2ppflag
Possession + xG metrics over last 6 friendlies favor ARG at home. Brier-audited model has +3.1pp edge on CONMEBOL host favorites since 2024.
Carolina Hurricanes at Vegas Golden Knights
Our pick
VGK 57.0%
Vegas
50.4%
Edge
+6.6pp
Series 1-1, shifts to VGK home. G3 home teams in NHL Finals 2010-2024 went 9-5 (64%). Market underpricing home-ice swing.
Price
$105.57
Conf
47.6%
RSI
27.1
Price
$516.83
Conf
42.6%
RSI
51.2
Price
$534.11
Conf
39.4%
RSI
50.4
Price
$83.31
Conf
36.9%
RSI
28.8
Price
$29.49
Conf
36.9%
RSI
22.3
Price
$13.91
Conf
36.9%
RSI
29.1
Price
$23.51
Conf
42.6%
RSI
28.5
Price
$27.97
Conf
36.9%
RSI
19.0
flag = Δ ≥ 5pp
Our YES
22.2%
Market
11.5%
Edge
+10.7ppflag
5-persona ensemble flags structural underweighting of Google's TPU + Gemini cadence. 12% consensus anchored to recency bias.
Our YES
8.4%
Market
6.6%
Edge
+1.9pp
Base rate of major-power neighbor invasion is ~2-4% / year. Institutional analysis suggests current trajectory holds; small mispricing only.